Tamil Nadu Begins Counting Votes in Unpredictable 234-Member Assembly Election

Tamil Nadu began counting votes on Monday for the highly unpredictable 234-member state Assembly elections, with urban centres like Chennai serving as crucial focus areas for the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The electoral outcome will determine if Chief Minister MK Stalin secures a second term, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) mounts a comeback, or actor Vijay’s new party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), establishes a significant foothold in the state.

To secure a majority in the Assembly, a party or alliance must reach the majority mark of 118 seats.

Chief Minister Stalin is leading the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, which includes the Congress, two Left parties, and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). For this election, the DMK also aligned with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) to help consolidate northern and central districts, and brought in former AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam to secure the Thevar community vote.

The AIADMK, led by Edappadi K Palaniswami, has positioned itself as the main alternative to the DMK, focusing its campaign on cost-of-living concerns and law and order. However, the party has faced leadership challenges and the loss of senior figures, including O Panneerselvam to the DMK and KA Sengottaiyan to the TVK.

Actor Vijay’s TVK is contesting its first election, presenting itself as an opponent to both the DMK and the BJP. The TVK’s campaign was marked by controversies surrounding a stampede in Karur and discussions over Vijay's reportedly final film, 'Jana Nayagan'.

Exit polls have presented widely divergent forecasts. The Axis My India survey projected a debut victory for the TVK with 98 to 120 seats, ahead of the DMK's 92 to 110 seats and the AIADMK's 22 to 32 seats.

Conversely, People's Pulse predicted a DMK victory with 125 to 145 seats, followed by the AIADMK with 65 to 80 seats, and the TVK with 18 to 24 seats. Chanakya also projected a DMK win with 125 seats, placing TVK second with 63 seats and AIADMK third with 45 seats. JVC-Times Now predicted an AIADMK comeback with 128 to 147 seats.

Representatives from all major parties dismissed the unfavorable polls. DMK spokesperson Dr Syed Hafeezullah called the positive predictions conservative, TVK's Nirmal Kumar expressed confidence in a mandate for Vijay, and AIADMK MP Inbadurai asserted his party would win 150 seats.