IMD Forecasts Below Normal Rainfall for Most of Tamil Nadu in September

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below normal monsoon rainfall for most parts of Tamil Nadu during September, with only select pockets in the northern and interior districts expected to receive normal to above normal showers.

In its weather outlook for September, the IMD stated that monthly rainfall across the country is likely to remain below normal, with expected precipitation reaching 91% of the long period average. The department warned that the reduced rainfall could adversely impact water resources and agricultural activity, in addition to increasing the risk of heat stress in multiple regions.

Tamil Nadu has recorded an overall rainfall of 16.3 cm during the ongoing Southwest monsoon since June 1, which is 22% below the normal average. According to the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), several districts, including Ariyalur, Nagapattinam, and Thoothukudi, have recorded significant rainfall deficits during this period.

The weather agency attributed the widespread rainfall deficiency to moderate to strong El Nino conditions that prevailed over the equatorial Pacific in August. Strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing and are projected to strengthen further in the coming months, which could continue to keep monsoon activity subdued.

However, forecasts from international climate centres suggest that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop during September, which may partly offset the adverse impact of El Nino.

Alongside subdued rainfall, most parts of Tamil Nadu are expected to experience hot weather through September. The RMC noted that both maximum and minimum temperatures across the state are likely to remain above normal levels.